In this episode, we review energy supply and demand and some of the key sentiments coming out of International Energy Week - not only about where both those curves are headed, but also key associated risks to each.
Are our assumptions correct about energy demand in the world of AI? Are our assumptions correct around development curves, especially in the Global South? Is there a hydrocarbon glut out there? And what about the long term?
Speaking to our host Paul Chapman on this episode is Claudio Galimberti - Chief Economist at Rystad Energy - about their recently published House View Report.
Rystad Energy is an energy consulting and market analytics firm with over 40 offices around the world and headquartered in Oslo.
The House View is available for download here.
HC Group is a global search firm dedicated to the energy and commodities markets.
Explore the full HC Commodities Podcast archive
Podcast Briefing: Key Talent Trends
Intensifying shortage of experienced upstream and energy economists
There is a structural decline in investment cycles and long project lead times in oil and gas. Combined with high natural decline rates and the need for continued exploration, this reinforces demand for highly experienced geoscientists, reservoir engineers, project economists and energy market analysts. However, there is also a demographic gap, with senior talent retiring and fewer mid career professionals coming through. This creates acute succession risk and rising competition for scarce expertise, particularly in upstream and long cycle projects.
Growing premium on geopolitical and macro risk capability
Geopolitical risk is a key driver of prices and uncertainty, from Iran and Venezuela to Russia Ukraine and OPEC+. This elevates the importance of talent that can integrate geopolitics, macroeconomics and energy markets. Trading firms, producers and governments will increasingly need economists, strategists and analysts who can scenario model geopolitical shocks, trade flow disruption and policy shifts. The talent impact is a move away from narrow commodity specialisation towards hybrid profiles combining economics, politics and energy systems.
Rising demand for power, electrification and energy systems talent
The acceleration of electrification, renewable deployment and battery adoption, particularly in China and parts of the Global South, shifts talent demand beyond hydrocarbons alone. Skills in power markets, grid economics, storage, EV infrastructure and energy efficiency become more central. Traditional oil and gas firms face pressure to retrain or redeploy talent into power and integrated energy system roles, while utilities, renewables developers and data centre operators compete for engineers and analysts with power sector expertise.
Increased importance of digital, data and AI enabled roles
AI-driven productivity gains and rapid growth in data centre power demand signal a structural change in how energy is produced, consumed and traded. This raises demand for talent that can combine energy domain knowledge with data science, AI, optimisation and advanced analytics. Trading and optimisation capabilities are explicitly referenced as critical for managing volatility and changing flows. The talent implication is strong competition for individuals who understand commodities markets but can also build or interpret advanced digital tools.
Long term talent risk from sustained periods of low prices
There are currently parallels with the late 1980s and 1990s, when low prices led to underinvestment and a lost generation of talent. A similar risk now exists if near term oversupply suppresses prices and hiring. Even though long term demand for hydrocarbons remains substantial, companies may delay recruitment and training. This creates future capability gaps just as investment and production need to rise again. Talent strategies therefore become counter cyclical, with firms that continue to invest in people during downturns gaining a lasting competitive advantage.
Key Themes
AI and electrification
Global energy demand continues to rise, but its composition is changing. Electrification improves efficiency and reduces energy losses, while AI and data centres are beginning to drive power demand in certain regions. Productivity gains from AI may lift GDP, yet it remains unclear whether this translates into materially higher overall energy consumption or simply reshapes demand across sectors.
Geopolitics vs fundamentals
Energy markets appear structurally influenced by geopolitical risk. Even with near term oversupply across oil and other energy sources, prices remain supported by uncertainty linked to Iran, Russia Ukraine, the Middle East and OPEC dynamics. This suggests markets are increasingly pricing disruption scenarios and political risk premiums rather than relying solely on current supply demand balances.
Supply and investment risks
Short term surpluses are driven by rising production and slower demand growth, yet they may obscure deeper structural risks. High natural decline rates mean ongoing investment is required just to maintain output. Weak exploration success, rising costs and delayed capital deployment increase the likelihood of a future supply gap, potentially leading to sharp price volatility later in the decade.
Global South Trajectory
Development pathways in parts of Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia may diverge from historic patterns. Falling battery costs, abundant Chinese manufacturing capacity and decentralised solar and storage systems enable faster electrification. This raises the possibility that emerging economies bypass oil intensive growth stages, challenging long standing assumptions about future hydrocarbon demand.
Hydrocarbons investment
Electrification reduces waste and improves efficiency, but hydrocarbons remain central to the energy system. Oil demand is expected to plateau rather than collapse, while gas demand continues to grow. With natural decline rates around 17 percent, substantial ongoing investment is still required to prevent supply shortfalls and maintain system stability over the long term.